Presidential Politics – 2

giuliani.jpg Barack Hussein Obama, the man that nobody knew (even Teddy Kennedy misspoke and called him Osama Obama), has now closed to within 5 points of Hillary Clinton in a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll released on Wednesday (4/25/07).   Just one month ago Hillary’s lead was 12 points.  Other recent polls seem to at least corroborate this finding.  USA/Today has Barack only 5 behind and Rasmussen has it all tied up.  If she has to commit large sums of money to the Primary Campaign it could impact and potentially alter her hopes to waive Federal Presidential Campaign Financing and underwrite the Presidential campaign herself, which would remove her from expenditure limitations.  But other early indicators suggest that this could all be moot.

Though it is very early in the process, additional recent polls show Giuliani leading both Obama and Clinton by comfortable margins in 3 key states: Ohio, Florida (you remember these) and Pennsylvania.  I’ll just say this right now; if the Republicans carry OH, FL & PA in 2008 they will win the Presidency.  Remember Bush carried OH and FL and lost PA in both the 2000 & 2004 elections.  Also, a Giuliani candidacy could make NY competitive forcing her to commit enormous resources to holding NY.  This is something that has not been in the Democratic game plan I assure you.  Clinton may be the only candidate that could hold Giuliani off in NY and maybe not even her.  If they would also lose NY it would be totally over for the D’s in 2008.  So maybe the picture is not so dim for the R’s in 2008. 

If I were a kingmaker Giuliani would not be my pick, but he may be just the ticket for the slugfest coming up.  My largest problem with him is his stance on abortion.  He claims to be against abortion personally but pro choice philosophically; however, I believe him when he says that he would appoint judges like Scalia, Alito and Roberts.  You don’t believe it?  I do and here is why.  He is smart enough to know that his hopes of re-election would be zero if he were elected with support from the “base” (who he will absolutely need) predicated on this “pledge” and then turn around and betray them.  I’d be out in front of the revolt.  So, believing that his pro-choice views would be neutralized in the appointment of Federal Justices, especially SCOTUS, I think he may prove to be the best bet for blocking Hillary, Barack or Al from the Presidency.  The “base” didn’t show up in the last election and look what happened.  I think they learned that lesson.   

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6 Responses to “Presidential Politics – 2”


  1. 1 bd April 27, 2007 at 1:19 am

    My other issue with Giuliani is that he isn’t a big fan of firearms. I think he will have to make some changes there to get out of the primaries.

  2. 2 stevereenie April 27, 2007 at 1:22 am

    bd

    He will probably show up with a film crew Quail hunting soon.

  3. 3 mommyzabs April 27, 2007 at 3:42 am

    interesting. giuliani hasn’t been my pick either, but i would sure take him over the other options. Oh yeah- and I really was unimpressed with the interview his wife did with barbra walters. she struck me as prickly. But i don’t want to be hard on her. It could just be really difficult for her to be in a spotlight situation like that. But still I do think a persons wife does have a reflection on the man. ANd when it is the head of the country… maybe she should get some “spotlight” training.

  4. 4 the Grit April 27, 2007 at 3:23 pm

    Hi s,

    While you have presented an excellent summary of the current situation, keep in mind that all the players may not yet be in the game. Either Thompson or Newt entering would stir the pot considerably.

    the Grit

  5. 5 stevereenie April 27, 2007 at 3:30 pm

    Hi Grit,

    So True, and either Newt or Thompson would be my preferred candidate, but I wonder if they can sink the D’s.

  6. 6 theobromophile April 30, 2007 at 2:39 am

    Good post, SteveReenie.

    I’m such a Court pessimest, so my hopes for Guiliani appointments are basically nil. The big issue is that many people, when put on the Court, drift to the left. Consider Souter, Kennedy, and O’Connor as prime examples. We are just gathering the strength to put Scalias and Alitos on the bench (I’m not sure how Roberts will play out ten years from now – my guess is that he’s the next Kennedy) – those with die-hard conservative track records. I don’t see Guiliani putting people like that on the bench so much as conservatives who will drift Left.

    That’s just me and I’m a Court pessimest… and I guess that I dislike anyone to the left of Scalia. 😉


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